How to visualize, model, and mobilize your global operations before volatility strikes again
by Pedro San Martín, Principal at Asher PwC Interamericas
This week, I sat down with the executive team of a global logistics firm facing mounting friction in their international operations. The CFO leaned forward, clearly exasperated:
"How are we supposed to plan if the game changes every quarter?"
His question isn’t an exaggeration. In just a few months, their operations faced new tariffs in three countries, customs delays in Asia, and a talent shortage spanning Central America and Eastern Europe.
I've heard similar stories across industries. Volatility is no longer an exception — it’s the new baseline. But in that complexity lies a new frontier: the opportunity to reimagine how we visualize, model, and mobilize international operations — with more and clear precision.
This situation resonates with me. Despite the challenges, we have an opportunity to redefine how we visualize, model, and manage global operations.
Guiding Questions:
- Are we seeing the full picture of our international operations?
- What possible business scenarios should we anticipate now?
- Do we have the right talent to execute any path we choose?
1. Seeing the big picture requires systems, not intuitions
In international trade, too many companies still operate like pilots flying through fog — reacting to dials, improvising through turbulence, hoping the weather clears. But hope is not a method.
Instead, what they need is radar: centralized, tech-enabled visibility that connects operations, finance, compliance, and strategy in real time.
Centralized, technology-driven management can help solve these global trade challenges. Today’s digital platforms automate customs, simulate logistics routes, compare tariff costs, and find tax opportunities like drawbacks or free zones. But these tools do more than just improve efficiency. When companies use them well, they can manage costs, service, and risks more strategically across the business. ("Optimizing Supply Chains for International Markets: Insights from Global Trade Expert Randall Castillo Ortega", 2024) This broader view not only improves operational efficiency but also increases shareholder value by connecting supply chain efforts to broader company goals and mitigating financial fluctuations. (Christopher, 1999) To get started, leaders should assemble a team from various departments to review current processes and identify areas for improvement. Testing a process like customs automation can offer useful lessons and help get support from other teams. This approach makes the transition smoother and helps companies get the most from digital tools.
One client in the heavy machinery industry cut import costs by 18% by running simulations to compare suppliers in the US and Central America. These simulations helped them look at every part of landed costs, like shipping, tariffs, and handling fees for different routes. The savings came from optimizing these costs, not just negotiating prices. At first, the client struggled to get accurate data from suppliers and to align their systems for these comparisons. Once they solved these issues, they built a more flexible and responsive supply chain.
And the impact goes beyond savings:
"We didn't know that our luxury bags were classified the same as automotive parts. That mistake cost us three weeks of idle inventory," ... the COO of a premium retail firm told me.
The lesson is clear: without detailed traceability in international trade, you operate without critical insight. In our work across sectors, companies using integrated trade visibility platforms report:
- 18% average reduction in landed costs through simulation modeling
- 11 percentage point increase in on-time delivery via AI workforce optimization
- And most importantly: the ability to connect trade actions to enterprise-level goals
2. Modeling Probable Futures > Predicting the Improbable
Scenario modeling is not about being right — it’s about being ready.
One client recently used Monte Carlo simulations to test the financial impact of a 3% increase in tariffs across APAC. The result? A projected 0.8% drop in EBITDA, enough to pause an acquisition and renegotiate supplier terms.
The ROI wasn’t the prediction. It was the preparedness. Volatility is now the norm. In this environment, scenario modeling provides a competitive advantage.
Monte Carlo simulation tools help CFOs and supply chain managers test different scenarios. (Maitra, 2024) For example, they can see what might happen if China limits exports of electronic parts. These tools show the possible impact, like how a 1% change in tariffs could affect EBITDA by 0.5%. This helps leaders quickly understand the financial effects of different situations. When picking a scenario modeling tool, it’s important to look for one that works with your current systems, can grow with your business, is easy to use, and gives clear, useful insights.
- How does our EBITDA change if Mexico adjusts its tax regime in free zones?
- Is it worth relocating our factory instead of paying logistical cost overruns?
These simulations do not predict the future, but they enhance decision-making by considering a range of possible outcomes.
In a study by Asher with Oracle, two extreme futures were modeled – one hyperprotectionist and the other of total free trade – to understand their impact on inventories, turnover, and net margin. The objective was not to choose, but to prepare. In our experience, companies that actively model scenarios respond 37% faster to disruptions and experience lower organizational attrition.
3. Talent Is Either a Bottleneck — or a Force Multiplier
You can’t execute a digital supply chain strategy with an analog workforce. Yet, very few companies translate trade strategy into talent design. Who will navigate free trade rules? Who will manage compliance automation? Who will lead nearshoring transitions?No strategic plan succeeds without the right people in place. Yet few companies convert global business projections into a strategic talent plan.
Today, participating in government programs such as incentives for advanced manufacturing or clean energy requires formal commitments to training, retention, and the development of local talent.
Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) is important for workforce planning and for managing profitability and costs (EPCM). EPM gives you tools to track performance, align operations with your strategy, and make better decisions. EPCM helps plan and run complex projects by making sure everything is managed well. Both approaches help you spot skill gaps, estimate labor costs, and connect operational results to workforce factors.
For instance, a consumer goods company discovered that late deliveries were 82% correlated with unplanned shift changes. By adjusting schedules using AI, punctuality improved by 11 percentage points in six weeks.
In conclusion, if talent is not aligned with strategy, even the best plans remain unfulfilled intentions.
🟨 FOR REFLECTION
Could your organization switch global routes tomorrow — with confidence and speed?
If you cannot provide data on costs, talent, and compliance, you are not yet prepared for the upcoming challenges.
The discipline of preparing for the unpredictable
Exporting, diversifying, and outsourcing were once advantages, but now also present vulnerabilities if not managed proactively and accurately.
Mastering the ability to see, model, and mobilize is essential for survival and leadership in tomorrow's market.
And as I usually say to my clients, Global trade has changed, but you can still choose your direction. You can take charge by booking a strategic assessment with us. This step can lead to tangible results, including reduced costs, mitigated risks, and increased operational efficiency. Let’s turn ideas into action and work together for measurable success.
Trade today is a high-stakes chessboard. Every move affects costs, talent, risk, and resilience. The firms that will lead tomorrow aren’t just reacting to tariffs. They’re using them as strategic signals — to redesign operations, realign resources, and rethink global footprints. As I often remind clients: You may not control the disruption — but you can control your preparation.
Brief bibliography
- PwC Global Risk Survey 2023: A global survey of over 3,900 business and risk leaders, examining how organizations are adapting their risk management strategies through tech, data, and cross-functional collaboration. pwc.com
- Global Supply Chains: The Race to Rebalance – PwC, 2023. This report explores how companies are reevaluating and restructuring global supply chains amid geopolitical, economic, and digital pressures. Download PDF
- Digital Supply Chain Transformation – MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics Research, highlighting how digitization in supply chains can improve operational resilience, reduce process costs by up to 50%, and boost revenues. MIT CTL
- SCM Career Outcomes: Class of 2024 – MIT Supply Chain Management Program Data-driven insights into global workforce trends in supply chain roles, including skills demand, compensation, and strategic capabilities. MIT SCM Report
- Using Scenario Planning as a Weapon Against Uncertainty – Wharton, Knowledge@Wharton. A practical article on how leading firms apply scenario modeling to prepare for disruptive change and operational volatility. Read Article
About the author
Pedro San Martín is a Principal at Asher, and PwC Interamericas Subject Matter Expert, where he advises multinational firms on Strategic Finance and Finance Transformation across the Americas. Can be contacted at psanmartin@asheranalytics.com